As a result, this type of forecast assesses likelihood and risk, but does not predict specific weather, such as the dates of a potential heatwave or exactly how high temperatures may reach on any given day.
We present the likelihood of each outcome using a range or percentages. Factors in the global climate system act to make some outcomes more likely than others, because of this we can make a prediction, showing a spread of possible outcomes. Long range forecasts assess global weather patterns and their potential to influence the type of weather in the UK over the course of a season, dry, windy, hot etc.
#Are we predicted to have a long summer drivers#
With many variables there are unavoidable limitations to what we can predict, particularly during the summer months when the influence of global weather drivers on the UK is small so confidence in Outlooks at this time of year is lower than, say the winter. We have to acknowledge that the chaotic nature of our atmosphere means it is not possible to predict the weather on any particular day months ahead. There’s always a lot of interest in predictions for the summer – how hot will it be, how much rain will we get? Long-range predictions, including the Contingency Planners 3 Month Outlook, are at the cutting edge of meteorological science but are unlike weather forecasts for specific days. The Met Office Contingency Planners 3-Month Outlook is often cited as a source for some of this conjecture, but can it really be used to tell us what the daily weather has in store for the coming months? There is lots of speculation about the potential for up-and-coming heatwaves, extreme temperatures or drought for this summer.
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